India is the largest sugar producer in the world, and the Asian nation ranks 2nd behind Brazil in terms of sugar exports.
The Sugar Production Estimates
All India Sugar Traders Association (AISTA), a body of traders and exporters, has estimated India’s sugar production at 34.5 million metric tonnes (MMT) for the current season (October 2022 -September 2023).
Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA), a private sugar millers body, projected the country’s sugar production for the 2022-23 season at a record high of 36.5MMT. The estimated output by AISTA is much lower than the projected output by ISMA, as AISTA predictions take into account the weather-related issues since the beginning of the sugar crop season in October.
The AISTA production estimates are lower than the output in the previous year’s sugar crop season i.e. 35.8MMT. On 5th January’23, AISTA’s Crop Estimation Committee (CEC), chaired by AISTA’s VP, Rahil Shaikh (also chairman of CEC), made the projections observed and the meeting was attended by leading agronomists, agri-economists, and industry and trade leaders.
India’s Sugar Export Allocation
As per the association, an additional 5MMT of India’s sugar production would be diverted towards ethanol production. The sugar exports have been pegged at 7MMT in the current season to be exported before 31st May’23 11.2MMT in the previous season (October’21-September’22). This would intend that the center might allow exports for an additional 1MMT of sugar after having permitted 6MMT in November’22. Sugar Exporters have already struck deals for the export of 5.5MMT of sugar which leaves only a minimal quantity for global sugar exports from India. AISTA has projected India’s domestic consumption at 27.5MMT and the sugar closing stocks at 6MMT which is the same as the previous season.
Sugar Production In India
As per AISTA, sugar production in Maharashtra has declined from 13.7MMT in 2021-22 to 12.4MMT in 2022-23. In Uttar Pradesh, the 2nd largest producing state, sugar production has been pegged at 10.5MMT, up from the previous year’s 10.2MMT. The output in Karnataka may decline from 6.2MMT to 5.7MMT this season and in Tamil Nadu, a higher output is predicted at 1.7MMT against the previous year’s 1.3MMT.
AISTA also mentioned that “Harvest of sugarcane has not commenced in major-producing States and it may have an impact on the overall production”.
Reasons For The State-Wise Production Change
As per AISTA, the output in Uttar Pradesh dropped due to a low recovery rate as many sugarcane crops were affected by the red dot disease but still, the production has been pegged higher. The decline in Maharashtra’s production has been in view of heavy rains affecting the cane crop in October. In Karnataka, sugar production has been increased by several mills for the diversion of ethanol production, and in Tamil Nadu, the sugarcane acreage has increased with the help of a good rainfall record.
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