Sugar prices have been on a steady rise over the past few months, lack of supply is the reason. But the demand for Indian sugars has seen an overwhelming increase from global markets. This is due to the shortfall in production in Brazil, which has led to exports at lesser margins. The fall in the value of the Rupee has also been beneficial to Indian exporters.
India’s sugar production is expected to be at 28 million tonnes as against 24 million tonnes last year. Brazil’s production is likely to be 27 million tonnes as against 47 million tonnes last year. Thailand’s production is likely to be at 11 million tonnes against 14 million tonnes last year. In Mexico, it is estimated that 4-5 million tonnes less will be produced this year as compared to last year, and the European Union’s production estimate is at 18-19 million tonnes, about 0.5-1 million less than last year’s figure.
Sugar exports from India
Sugar exports from India could reach an all-time high of 7.5 Mn Mts in the current financial year 2021-2022, compared to approximately 6 Mn Mts. However, sugar traders do not expect a significant increase in local sugar prices.
Indian sugar is seeing overwhelming demand in global markets at a time when the country has surplus stocks, according to data from exporters and industry officials.
The increase in the amount of sugar diverted to ethanol production has created a worldwide shortage which is being met by Indian traders. According to Sudhanshu Pandey, Secretary, Department of Food and Public Distribution, Indian sugar exports are expected to grow.
ISMA The Indian Sugar Mills Association is certain that the sugar mills have so far entered into agreements to export 6 Mn MTS of sugar in the current marketing year ending 30 September 2022. Of that, 4.2 Mn MTS was shifted till the end of February 2022.
The association added that India will produce approximately 33.3 Mn MTS of sugar in 2021/22, which is about 5.9% higher than the previous estimate. Production will increase in Maharashtra and neighboring Karnataka.
The WTO also said that Maharashtra’s sugar production is expected to reach 12.6 million MTS, higher than the previous estimate of 11.7 million MTS. Karnataka’s production estimate was revised from 4.52 Mn MTS to 5.5 Mn Mts. As sales increased in the first four months of the current marketing year, they increased their forecast by 2.6% to 27.2 Mn MTS.
Global Sugar Consumption
Global Sugar Consumption in 2021/2022 is projected to reach 181.1 million metric tons, up 1.2% from the previous year.
Global Sugar Consumption in 2021/2022 is expected to increase 1.2% and reach 181.1 million metric tons, according to the latest report by IndexBox. Global sugar consumption peaked in 2018, with a slight decline in the following years, before leveling off in 2020. The pattern reflected suppression of demand during the COVID-19 pandemic, which significantly affected the food industry worldwide.
In addition, rising health concerns have been having an increasing impact on the world’s sugar consumption, leading to a shift in consumer preferences toward low-sugar or no-sugar products and prompting manufacturers to reduce sugar content in their processed foods and drinks.
Global sugar consumption will continue to grow moderately between 2021/22 and 2023/24. The growth rate is estimated at 1.1% per annum, reaching a level of 178.5 million tons. This would bring the per capita consumption to 23.6 kg per year in 2023/24, with only small differences between the regions.
The countries of the OECD are projected to see a further decline in their per capita consumption; however, the absolute consumption will still increase slightly, due to population growth. Despite the declining trend over many years and despite the fact that it has already fallen below the level of 2000 (33.1 kg), it still remains high relative to other countries, with 32.4 kg per person on average for 2020/21. In contrast, consumption in non-OECD countries is expected to increase by 0.9% annually until 2023/24 and reach 21.3 kg per person on average.
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